October Intelligence Briefing
Industry perspective
Routes in transition
October's defining dynamic is divergence. Container carriers are returning to the Suez Canal faster than expected. COSCO completed its first southbound transit on 16 September, and CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd have all restored services to varying degrees. In the first two weeks of October, container capacity transiting the canal exceeded half of pre-disruption levels for the first time since the Red Sea diversions began. The effect is visible in rates: Asia-Europe spot rates have now fallen for 13 consecutive weeks as returning capacity shortens voyages and releases tonnage. Transpacific rates have held comparatively firmer.
The tanker market tells the opposite story. Middle East Gulf crude exports have recovered sharply, but much of that volume now moves through ship-to-ship transfers rather than direct voyages, a process that ties up far more vessel time. Clarksons' ClarkSea Index has set five consecutive all-time highs, with average Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) earnings above $800,000 per day. JPMorgan estimates that moving Middle Eastern crude, excluding Iran, now requires around 35 more VLCCs than the 2025 average, and the squeeze has pushed demand onto smaller tankers worldwide. Dry bulk has moved the other way. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has fallen for seven consecutive sessions and is now around 23% below its early-September peak, as capesize rates slide on softer Chinese iron ore demand and a growing supply of available tonnage.
The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) surrender deadline of 30 September has passed. Operators that did not surrender allowances for 70% of their verified 2025 emissions are now in breach, facing a penalty of €100 per missing allowance on top of covering the shortfall. Attention now turns to 2026, the first year of 100% EU ETS coverage for shipping and the first to include methane and nitrous oxide alongside CO2. At the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Net-Zero Framework heads into a compressed endgame: three sessions in 12 days, from 23 November to 4 December, will decide whether it is adopted as drafted, substantially altered or deferred again.
Key takeaways at a glance
Containers: Asia-Europe spot rates have fallen for 13 consecutive weeks as Suez Canal capacity returns; Transpacific rates are holding comparatively firmer. Suez container transits passed half of pre-disruption levels in early October.
Tankers: Clarksons' ClarkSea Index set a fifth consecutive all-time high in the week ending 9 October, led by record VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax earnings. Ship-to-ship transfers out of the Gulf are absorbing far more vessel time than direct voyages, tightening fleet supply worldwide.
Dry bulk: The Baltic Dry Index fell for a seventh consecutive session on 13 October to 2,801, around 23% below its 4 September peak, as average capesize earnings slipped to around $32,700 per day.
Panama Canal: The Neopanamax draft returned to 49 feet on 28 September, and a tenth daily Neopanamax slot takes total capacity to 33 transits from 15 October. The Authority warns the watershed remains in deficit.
Regulation: The EU ETS surrender deadline for 2025 emissions has passed; penalties apply for non-compliance. The IMO Net-Zero Framework faces three sessions in 12 days before a possible adoption decision on 4 December.
Industry updates
Suez Canal return is real — and it is reshaping container rates
The return of major container carriers to Suez Canal routing is advancing faster than many expected, and its impact on Asia-Europe freight rates is now clear. COSCO's first southbound transit on 16 September was followed by a progressive return of services from CMA CGM, Maersk, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd, alongside routing changes from the Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance. Clarksons Research data show weekly container capacity through the canal averaged 753,000 TEU in the first two weeks of October, compared with 1.45 million TEU in the same period of 2023: the first time transits have exceeded half of pre-disruption levels since the diversions began. Each service returned means shorter voyages, fewer vessels needed to maintain frequency and more effective capacity in the market. Asia-Europe spot rates have fallen for 13 consecutive weeks as a result. The return is not yet complete. Linerlytica expects ONE and HMM to be the next carriers to switch, leaving Evergreen, Yang Ming and Zim as the remaining major holdouts, and analysts now expect a full return early in 2027. Drewry's revised base case has Suez transits reaching 80% of pre-diversion levels by February 2027. The return remains conditional: the security situation in the southern Red Sea has deteriorated even as services resume, and carriers continue to assess routing service by service.
Tanker earnings hit record highs as ship-to-ship trade stretches the global fleet
Tanker earnings have reached record levels. Clarksons' cross-sector ClarkSea Index rose 12% to $84,951 per day in the week ending 9 October, its fifth consecutive all-time high. The Q3 2026 quarterly average of $46,384 per day had already exceeded the previous quarterly record set in 2008. Average VLCC earnings rose 21% week-on-week to just over $800,000 per day, while Suezmax earnings rose 17% and Aframax earnings 46%. The main commercial driver is not reduced volume, as Gulf crude exports have recovered strongly, but the way that volume now moves. Much of it is carried by shuttle tankers and transferred ship-to-ship in the Gulf of Oman, a process that can occupy a vessel for up to 10 days and absorbs far more fleet capacity than a direct voyage. JPMorgan estimates that moving Middle Eastern crude, excluding Iran, now requires around 35 additional VLCCs, 13 Suezmaxes and 10 Aframaxes compared with 2025 averages. The effect has spread beyond the region: outside the Middle East, Aframax employment is up 23% and Suezmax employment 11% on 2025 averages. Asset values have followed earnings, with Clarksons' VLCC resale price index at a record $240 million.
Baltic Dry Index extends its slide as capesize rates fall
The Baltic Dry Index fell for a seventh consecutive session on 13 October, down 51 points to 2,801. That is its lowest level since 20 August and around 23% below the 3,628 peak reached on 4 September. Capesize rates drove the decline: the Baltic Capesize Index fell to 3,994, its lowest since late July, and average capesize earnings slipped to $32,719 per day, down from $35,860 on 9 October. Market commentary points to weaker Chinese iron ore demand, elevated port inventories and a growing supply of available capesize tonnage. The smaller segments have held up better, with panamax and supramax rates edging higher. The near-term direction depends largely on whether fresh Chinese iron ore enquiries return after Golden Week in sufficient volume to absorb the available capesize fleet. The correction is now deeper than a typical post-holiday pause, and owners and charterers should plan Q4 positions accordingly.
Panama Canal eases restrictions as Gatun Lake recovers
The Panama Canal Authority eased transit restrictions on 28 September, raising the maximum authorised draft for Neopanamax vessels to 49 feet (14.94m) with immediate effect, up from 48 feet. A tenth daily Neopanamax booking slot takes total capacity across both lock systems to 33 transits from 15 October. The Authority attributed the easing to September rainfall in the watershed, the effectiveness of water-saving measures at the locks, and current and projected Gatun Lake levels. The move reverses part of the restrictions imposed earlier this year, when the draft was cut to 48 feet from 2 September and Neopanamax slots were reduced to nine per day; a further cut to 47.5 feet was planned but postponed. Restrictions on the older Panamax locks remain at 23 daily slots. The Authority has set minimum weekly allocations by segment, including 42 slots for container vessels and 21 for LPG carriers, and warns that the water deficit persists. Vessels without a booking may still face indefinite delays.
Regulatory updates
EU ETS deadline has passed — attention now on 2026 full-year compliance
The 30 September 2026 deadline for surrender of EU ETS allowances covering 70% of verified 2025 maritime emissions has now passed. Operators who did not complete their surrender by the deadline are in breach. The penalty is €100 per allowance not surrendered (adjusted for inflation), and the shortfall must still be covered the following year — making non-compliance a compounding liability rather than a one-time cost. Port State Control can also be notified, and persistent defaults carry the risk of expulsion orders from EU ports. For operators who complied, the immediate focus shifts to 2026. This is the first year of 100% EU ETS coverage for maritime, now extended to include methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) alongside CO2. Every tonne of in-scope emissions from 2026 voyages must be surrendered in 2027. Consistent data collection across all vessels, routes and fuel types — from the start of the year, not retrospectively — is the foundation of a defensible 2027 surrender. Operators relying on fragmented monitoring systems should address that gap now, while Q4 records are still being generated.
IMO Net-Zero Framework: three sessions in 12 days before a December decision
The IMO Net-Zero Framework is entering its most compressed and consequential negotiating phase. Three sessions run back to back: the Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG 23) on 23–27 November; the 85th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 85) on 30 November–3 December; and, subject to the outcome of MEPC 85, the resumption on 4 December of the extraordinary session adjourned in October 2025. The September intersessional meeting (ISWG-GHG 22, 1–4 September) ended without agreed text, with implementation guidelines and life cycle assessment work deferred to November. Several alternative proposals remain on the table, including some that would keep the GHG fuel intensity targets but remove the pricing mechanism entirely. That leaves three broad outcomes: adoption of the framework substantially as drafted, adoption of a significantly altered version, or further deferral, with the risk that the global approach fragments into regional rules. Even if December brings adoption, the framework would not enter into force until 16 months later, no earlier than April 2028. Operators and commercial teams should be modelling fleet and fuel strategy across all three outcomes now. Waiting for the December decision before starting that work leaves little time for meaningful planning.
FuelEU Maritime: Q4 is the window to close 2026 monitoring gaps
The second FuelEU Maritime reporting period closes on 31 December 2026. The first, covering 2025, has now run its full cycle: verified reports, compliance balances, pooling and banking decisions, and the first FuelEU Documents of Compliance, which ships needed to hold by 30 June 2026. That cycle has shown where monitoring data is most likely to fall short. Operators of ships above 5,000 GT calling at EU and EEA ports must again report the verified greenhouse gas intensity of energy used on board for the full calendar year. With one quarter remaining, this is the last practical window to identify and correct gaps before year-end. Missing fuel consumption records, incomplete voyage data and inconsistently classified fuel types are far easier to fix now than after year-end, when retrospective correction becomes operationally complex and audit-sensitive. A structured Q4 data review, cross-referenced against the MRV fuel consumption records used for EU ETS, remains the most efficient approach, and any pooling or banking strategy for 2026 depends on that data being sound.
UK ETS: first compliance period ends 31 December — verified report due March
The UK Emissions Trading Scheme first maritime compliance period ends on 31 December 2026. Operators of vessels above 5,000 GT engaged in domestic UK voyages and in-port activities have been required to monitor CO2, methane and nitrous oxide since 1 July 2026. A verified emissions report is due by 31 March 2027, covering the second half of 2026. Allowance surrender for both 2026 and 2027 reporting years falls on 30 April 2028. Operators trading at both UK and EU ports are running two parallel compliance obligations simultaneously. With the EU ETS year-end data quality review also under way in Q4, the administrative overlap is significant. Teams that have not yet aligned their monitoring infrastructure across both regimes should prioritise that alignment before the year closes. Monitoring plan submissions are still required from operators who have not yet filed — the 42-day window from commencement of a regulated activity applies on a rolling basis.
Upcoming — NOx Technical Code amendments: multiple engine operational profiles from March 2027
The second set of NOx Technical Code amendments adopted at MEPC 83, alongside those that entered into force on 1 September 2026, enters into force on 1 March 2027. It introduces certification requirements for engines with multiple engine operational profiles and clarifies engine test cycles. The amendments apply no later than 1 January 2028 to new individual engines and parent engines that have not previously been certified. That makes them directly relevant to active newbuild programmes: any owner ordering engines now, or specifying propulsion for delivery in 2028 or beyond, needs to confirm that the engine supplier's certification pathway aligns with the new requirements. Technical and newbuild supervision teams should review each active programme now, while there is still time to resolve certification misalignments before they become delivery issues.
Managing EU ETS, UK ETS and FuelEU Maritime obligations across different regulatory regimes, emissions scopes, deadlines and reporting formats in a single, connected system is what Emissions Management within OpenOcean STUDIO® is built for. And as carriers adjust routings week by week, the commercial and crewing decisions that follow require that same visibility, delivered by Crew Management within OpenOcean STUDIO®, because a rerouted voyage changes fuel burn and emissions exposure at the same moment it changes crew rotations and cost, and the platform is built to keep both in view together.
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